From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Within the considerable disarray following the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.
A Grim History and a New Escalation
The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the early hours of Saturday saw its first major military attack on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.
The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and abduct its leader – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.
Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a renegade nation.
He believes that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.
An Attack Without Legal Justification
George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.
Disregard the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
It is widely rejected the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.
A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.
We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.
